everything old is new again

Let’s take bets…

June 8, 2004
Let’s take bets…

…on what form the October Surprise will take this year.

I’ve long felt it’ll either be bin Forgotten’s capture, or another terrorist attack which forces suspension of the elections.

All three are choices in this poll.

For those who don’t know what I mean by October Surprise, it’s simple. Back in 1980, George H.W. Bush made a trip to Paris to strike a deal with Iran to not release the hostages until after the election. This scuttled Jimmy Carter’s own plans that were in the works to bring about the same thing, but before the election.

Here’s a site filled with lots of history on it.

Via Boing Boing.

4 Responses to Let’s take bets…

  • I don’t know on what grounds the elections could be suspended. The time of national elections is hardwired into the Constitution, after all. I’m not sure if any legal mechanism exists for postponement. (Remember, this is the exact argument used to rule out any idea in 2000 of allowing those “butterfly ballot” voters a re-do.)

  • Apparently LBJ investigated it in ’68, and actually had the Chief Justice grudgingly sign off on it, but he didn’t go through with it. He felt the fierce tensions in the country might explode.

    But if we didn’t suspend elections in 1864, we sure as hell aren’t going to do it now. That is, unless these gangsters who stole our country have their way. I wouldn’t put it past them to try something — anything — to maintain power. It’s already been floated in the media, and there’s an amazing piece on Buzzflash from early April on it. I’ll see if I can dig up the link.

  • I really cannot imagine a scenario that would cause them to try to suspend the election short of a major war. Even Roosevelt had to stand for re-election in the middle of WWII.

    That’s not to say that there might not be some act of terrorism between now and November that might help Bush’s numbers. But it would have to be something on the scale of 9/11 to have much effect — blowing up an embassy in Africa or bombing a ship won’t have enough impact.

    My bet is they try to whip out something they can credibly pass off as WMD stockpiles in Iraq.

  • You guys might be right. Then again, four years ago I would never have imagined watching the Supreme Court declare that not everybody’s vote really needs to be counted. But it still happened.

    This time, I’m afraid I’m ready for anything–martial law included.